Despite the record strong net selling momentum on the Vietnamese stock market from 2020 to now, in individual stocks, foreign investors still actively gathered goods due to being included in the index basket or having good growth prospects.
Foreign investors net sold a record
Statistics show that, from the beginning of the year until now, foreign investors have net sold 61,607 billion VND (equivalent to 2.7 billion USD) – a record number ever, and 4 times higher than the net selling value in 2020. about 15,210 billion VND If considering from the Covid-19 epidemic area in 2020, foreign investors have net sold up to 77,000 billion VND (equivalent to 3.3 billion USD). It is also part of the trend of net withdrawal of foreign investors taking place across Asian markets
According to experts, the cause determines the role of the Vietnamese market in foreign capital markets. Vietnam is currently considered a frontier market and the concept of investing in these markets is wearing out and slowing down, even being seen as an old strategy that needs to be replaced. Therefore, foreign investors had to sell their investments in Vietnam. Besides, the Covid epidemic has affected foreign investors with the idea of “bringing money home”.
According to Mirae Asset Securities, foreign capital flows from emerging/marginal markets to the US markets have started since 2020, with the main reasons as follows: the dollar’s relative appreciation; major economic stimulus packages in the US and the US stock market continuously set new peaks. Besides, the possibility of the US raising its operating interest rates in the future when the US economy recovers before other countries in the world, as well as the rising trend of US government bond yields continue to promote this trend.
Remarkable developments in the real estate group
By industry, raw materials, food and beverage, banking, and real estate are the major net sellers in 2021; meanwhile, retail, oil and gas, healthcare, software and services, equipment, and hardware are the industries attracting foreign capital.
In which, a remarkable development is in the real estate industry, because this is the group that is considered to be heavily affected by the pandemic when the works have to stop construction, sales activities or handover progress are all the same. After all, investors are faced with expenses when they have to maintain their team and bear the burden of interest, and many small businesses even have to close down. This is also the main reason why the cash flow did not flow strongly into this group (but differentiated in each stock) in the third quarter.
Statistics from the beginning of July until now, real estate stocks that were sold the most in terms of volume were VIC with more than 71.3 million units, equivalent to a net value of more than 7,021 billion dongs, TCH was net sold 56.8 million shares, and NLG was net sold 49.66 million shares, NVL was net sold 16.87 million shares, KBC was net sold 14.8 million shares, CII was net sold 13 million shares, VPH was net sold 10.5 million, VGC net sold 9.6 million shares….
The movement of real estate stocks was somewhat opposite, rebounding strongly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with more positive information, such as the low-interest rate level, stimulating the demand to buy houses, packages. Economic stimulus in which infrastructure development is promoted is the driving force for the real estate market to increase in the future. And the real estate investment channel is still a familiar channel for Vietnamese people. In fact, over the past 1 month, there has been an increase in local real estate prices in some areas.
The strong momentum, while the profits of this industry group have not been shown in time, made the P/E valuations of many real estate stocks extremely high, leading to increased profit-taking pressure in these stocks. That includes foreign investors. Typically, the CEO is losing money (sales expectations have not been realized in numbers), negative EPS, but the stock price has increased sharply by 40% in the week of December 13-17, counting from the beginning of the quarter. 4, this stock increased to 413%, there were also continuous net selling sessions of foreign investors.
According to the strategic report on foreign cash flow in Vietnam’s stock market, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company said that, in some cases, the net selling of foreign investors can be seen as a reallocation of the investment portfolio. when positions have reached the maximum limits in the portfolio. Besides, a significant proportion can also be considered as a simple profit-taking operation.
There are still stocks upstream that are net bought
Amidst the “escape” of tens of trillions of dong of foreign investors, a bright spot was still present on some stocks when net buying was recorded. Looking from the beginning of December, the stocks that were bought strongly were VRE net buying 8.86 million shares, ITA buying 6 million shares, DXS buying 3.23 million shares, DIG buying 1, 67 million shares… And if from the beginning of July back here, the stocks with strong net absorption are still AGG, ITA, IJC, and especially DXS, which have been quietly bought by foreign investors since the first listing. , estimated at up to 15 million shares, bringing foreign ownership in DXS to more than 22% of DXS capital. DXS stock price also had an impressive increase of 48% since the bottom price in July, in which there was a positive contribution from foreign investors buying and selling.
In terms of business factors alone, DXS is the leading primary real estate brokerage unit in Vietnam with a long transaction system; Different business models bring high efficiency, ability to flexibly respond to market trends, not focus risks on a few segments or any project or area. This enterprise also soon applies technology and digital transformation, in which Real Agent and Ihouzz technology platforms are expected to elevate the DXS brand and maintain its dominant position in the Vietnamese real estate brokerage market.
The potential price increase of DXS is assessed by securities companies due to the size of the company’s primary product distribution contracts, in the first 9 months of the year, DXS still achieved a profit of 568 billion dong from parent company shareholders, an increase of 568 billion dong. slightly compared to the same period. Although the plan has not been achieved due to the general situation of the industry, the “savings” of DXS is large and is expected to be recorded in 2022.
Notably, the Central market has made a big contribution to Q3 2021’s business results with One world regency and Regal Pavillon projects. This is the market that is expected to continue to lead the future of DXS. The position of DXS in this market (with a member unit being Dat Xanh Mien Trung) is No. 1, market share is up to 60%.
The recovery process is beginning and with many favorable factors for the real estate market, DXS – the leading real estate brokerage will also benefit. With the position and volume of signed and distributed projects of tens of thousands of billion dong, DXS is assessed by experts to have a good rebound after the epidemic. The practice has also proven this.
Source: Cafef